#Thousands of years later download how to#

This will include Ray Kurzweil, who will still not be immortal. (For example, imagine reading TuringвЂ™s paper on computable numbers in 1936 and trying to proВject out how computers would change the world in just 70 or 80 years.) So an equivalent well-grounded question would have to be something simpler, like вЂњHow will computers/robots continue to change the world?вЂќ Answer: Within 20 years most baby boomers are going to have robotic devices in their homes, helping them maintain their independence as they age in place. Since we wonвЂ™t have intelligent computers like humans for well over 100 years, we cannot make any sensible projections about how they will change the world, as we donвЂ™t understand what the world will be like at all in 100 years. They will be olfactorily challenged dogs. But they wonвЂ™t have noses anywhere near as good as the real thing. It will be well over 100 years before we see this level in our machines. Not in our lifetimes, not even in Ray KurzweilвЂ™s lifetime, and despite his fervent wishes, just like the rest of us, he will die within just a few decades. When will we have computers as capable as the brain? Rodney BrooksвЂ™s revised question: When will we have computers/robots recognizably as intelligent and as conscious as humans? This is an active area of research at the moment.

#Thousands of years later download how to#

But one dimension of concern is that we fail to solve the problem of scalable control: how to engineer advanced artificial intelligence such that it will continue to behave as intended and act as an extension of human will, even as its intelligence is increased to arbitrarily high levels. I think itвЂ™s a whole new era that dawns at that point, and it is hard to foretell in much detail what it might contain. What are your biggest qualms about a future in which computers have human-level (or greater) intelligence?

The advance of algorithms is harder to predict, but the notion that we could have human-level AI within a small number of decades seems credible, though there is great uncertainty on both the lower and upper sides of this estimate. Eventually, the limits of computation in machine substrate are of course far beyond those in biological tissue, and it shouldnвЂ™t take too long to reach rough equivalence. Estimates vary, but perhaps the cortex performs something like 10 16 or 10 18 operations per second using 20 watts, which is impressive. Hardware-wise, the brain still compares favorably with machines. When will we have computers as capable as the brain? But they will ultimately go inside our bodies and brains (because miniaturization is another exponential trend), keeping us healthy (by augmenting our immune system), providing virtual and augmented reality from within the nervous system, and making us smarter.ДЄuthor of Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies Whether machines are inside or outside body is not a critical issue. I believe that our best strategy to keep AI safe and beneficial is to essentially merge with it. Who today can do their job or get an education without these extensions to our intelligence?Дo you have any qualms about a future in which computers have human-level (or greater) intelligence?Д®very technology since fire has had intertwined promise and peril. I believe computers will match and then quickly exceed human capabilities in the areas where humans are still superior today by 2029.ДЄI is already accelerating our ability to find cures for diseases, improve crop yields and other forms of productivity to reduce poverty, and find solutions to environmental problems. Of course, there is the inevitability of a DIY bad human-level computer, but that gives me even more reason to welcome human-level cyberintelligence, because just like it takes a, it will take a human-friendly smart computer to catch an antihuman smart computer.Д¬ofounder and chancellor, Singularity University There is no market for bad robot, no more than there is for a bad car or plane. I donвЂ™t, because IвЂ™m confident the computers will be overwhelmingly friendly since they will be selected for in a Darwinian environment that consists of humanity. They will be sad, and theyвЂ™ll be hoping for regenerated bodies, but they will feel like a backup of their original flesh self.Дo you have any qualms about a future in which computers have human-level (orВ greater) intelligence? People will no longer die, because the computerized version of themselves will insist they are still alive even if their flesh body has expired. How will brainlike computers change the world? When will we have computers as capable as theВ brain?